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Jordan Walker on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Jordan Walker wins the 2026 Hank Aaron Award for the National League. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $4.66 | 2.2% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Sal Stewart | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Kyle Schwarber | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Matt Olson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Shohei Ohtani | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Elly De La Cruz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| Jake Bauers | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
| CJ Abrams | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 26, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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