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Jason Robertson on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Jason Robertson wins the NHL Ted Lindsay Award for the 2026-27 regular season. If the listed player does not win for any reason, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Jason Robertson10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Lane Hutson12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Brayden Point4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Sebastian Aho4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Tage Thompson8¢8%0.7¢—16%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Zach Werenski2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Aleksander Barkov4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Mark Scheifele15¢15%1.2¢—30%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Matt Boldy3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Pavel Dorofeyev2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Mitch Marner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
William Nylander2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Kyle Connor2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Igor Shesterkin2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Cole Caufield2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Brady Tkachuk2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Andrei Vasilevskiy2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Sidney Crosby2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Artemi Panarin2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Connor Hellebuyck2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Matthew Tkachuk2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Cale Makar4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Mikko Rantanen2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Nick Suzuki2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jack Eichel2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Quinn Hughes2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jack Hughes2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Alex Ovechkin3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Leon Draisaitl2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Nikita Kucherov2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
David Pastrnak2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Nathan MacKinnon4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Connor McDavid6¢6%0.5¢—12%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Kirill Kaprizov2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Connor Bedard2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Auston Matthews2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Macklin Celebrini13¢13%1.1¢—26%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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