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Dan Vladar on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Dan Vladar wins the NHL Vezina Trophy for the 2026-27 regular season. If the listed player does not win for any reason, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 38 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Dan Vladar4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jakub Dobes4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Karel Vejmelka2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Brandon Bussi3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jesper Wallstedt4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jake Oettinger5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jeremy Swayman14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Andrei Vasilevskiy2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Ilya Sorokin5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Connor Hellebuyck16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Joseph Woll1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Thatcher Demko2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Stuart Skinner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Sergei Bobrovsky2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Mackenzie Blackwood2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Kevin Lankinen1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Juuse Saros2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jacob Markstrom2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jet Greaves2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
John Gibson2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Joey Daccord2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Jordan Binnington2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Filip Gustavsson2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Frederik Andersen2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Elvis Merzlikins1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Dustin Wolf2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Darcy Kuemper2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Connor Ingram1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Anthony Stolarz2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Arturs Silovs2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Adin Hill1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Spencer Knight2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Lukas Dostal2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Yaroslav Askarov2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Linus Ullmark5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Igor Shesterkin2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC
Logan Thompson4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jun 24, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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