What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 98¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $0.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 98% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 98%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Michael Olise on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Michael Olise wins the 2027 Men's Ballon d'Or. If two or more players win the award, each winner's market will settle to $1.00 divided by the number of winners. If a player other than the listed player wins the award, the market will settle to No. If no Men's Ballon d'Or is awarded for 2027, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

98%

Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%
98¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.10	98.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Michael Olise	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Vitinha	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Harry Kane	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Declan Rice	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Bruno Fernandes	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Raphinha	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Achraf Hakimi	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Desire Doue	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Jude Bellingham	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rayan Cherki	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Marc Cucurella	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Lautaro Martinez	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Joao Neves	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Fabian Ruiz	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Luis Diaz	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Alexander Isak	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Bukayo Saka	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Julian Alvarez	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
William Saliba	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Mohamed Salah	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Cristiano Ronaldo	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Lionel Messi	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rodri	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Lamine Yamal	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Ousmane Dembele	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Kylian Mbappe	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Erling Haaland	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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