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Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if 2026 is the second hottest year on record on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Outcome sourced from NASA GISS. The relevant figure will be found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt. Years are ranked in descending order by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, and so on, across all years for which the index has data. If 2026 is tied with another year in the ranking, the tied rank governs. For
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $4.04 | 16.2% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record? | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Mar 16, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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