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Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 22.5 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Wake Forest and SMU combine for over 22.5 points in the first half of the Wake Forest vs SMU college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 12:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
73%
Median YES price across 103 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 73¢ (now) | 1.9¢ | $1.28 | 74.9% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 22.5? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 11.5? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 18.5? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 26.5? | 75¢ | 75% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 25.5? | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 27.5? | 68¢ | 68% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 28.5? | 68¢ | 68% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 29.5? | 68¢ | 68% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 43.5? | 31¢ | 31% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 32.5? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 36.5? | 47¢ | 47% | 2.4¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 26.5? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 25.5? | 76¢ | 76% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 27.5? | 69¢ | 69% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 28.5? | 63¢ | 63% | 2.2¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 29.5? | 61¢ | 61% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 12.5? | 61¢ | 61% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 11.5? | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 14.5? | 48¢ | 48% | 2.4¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 15.5? | 47¢ | 47% | 2.4¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 13.5? | 58¢ | 58% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 11.5? | 95¢ | 95% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 13.5? | 89¢ | 89% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 12.5? | 94¢ | 94% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 14.5? | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 15.5? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 11.5? | 73¢ | 73% | 1.9¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 12.5? | 73¢ | 73% | 1.9¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 13.5? | 66¢ | 66% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 14.5? | 48¢ | 48% | 2.4¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 15.5? | 46¢ | 46% | 2.4¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 11.5? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 13.5? | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 15.5? | 63¢ | 63% | 2.2¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 14.5? | 66¢ | 66% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 12.5? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 20.5? | 86¢ | 86% | 1.1¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 16.5? | 96¢ | 96% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 24.5? | 73¢ | 73% | 1.9¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the total in Wake Forest vs. SMU be more than 27.5? | 65¢ | 65% | 2.2¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 28, 22:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 103 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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