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How High Will Unemployment Get by Dec. 31 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for any month from October 2026 through December 2026 is greater than or equal to 4.8%. Outcome sourced from BLS. This market settles based on the Employment Situation Report releases published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish complete data for the specified period by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will set

Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)0.4¢$4.564.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How High Will Unemployment Get by Dec. 31?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 23, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Unemployment Get by Dec. 31?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 23, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Unemployment Get by Dec. 31?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jan 23, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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