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November Unemployment Rate on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for November 2026 is above 3.8%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on December 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve

Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)0.5¢$4.515.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
November Unemployment Rate4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate83¢83%1.3¢—34%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate56¢56%2.3¢—88%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
November Unemployment Rate7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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