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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party's House popular vote margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. midterm election is at least 6%. Outcome sourced from the United States Clerk of the House. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in U.S. Representative vote share percentages between the party that receives the most votes for U.S. Representative and the party that receives the second-most votes for U.S. Representative in the 2026 U.S. midterm election, as reflected in the certified results from the United States Clerk of the House. Each party's vote share percentage will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party's candidates for
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $4.56 | 4.4% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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