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KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee's margin of victory in the 2026 KY-02 House election is between 0% and 10%. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most valid votes in the specified election and the candidate that receives the second-most valid votes in the specified election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. If the specified candidate does not receive the most valid v

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory87¢87%1.1¢—26%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory89¢89%0.9¢—22%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory85¢85%1.2¢—30%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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